Reds Quietly Becoming Best Team in Baseball - Gary Armida's Blog

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Reds Quietly Becoming Best Team in Baseball Stuck

Posted on August 29, 2012 at 06:41 AM.

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Many teams like to play the disrespect card. It is often a team that is playing well, but receiving little national attention. In most cases, it is merely a team trying to draw attention or to hype up their underdog role. But, this season Major League Baseball does have one of the least covered, legitimately great teams playing tremendous baseball in all aspects of the game. They also hold the largest division lead in the sport.

Yet, for some reason, there is little talk about just how complete of a team the Cincinnati Reds are this season.

At 79-52, the Reds have the best record in Major League Baseball. Their seven game lead over the Cardinals is the largest division lead in the sport. They have been in first place for the past 95 days and are 32-14 since the All-Star break. And, they are 29-14 since losing Joey Votto, their best player, on July 15th.

The Reds� dominance is a product of a couple of things. General Manager Walt Jocketty made a couple key additions before the season began in bringing in Mat Latos in a trade from San Diego. Latos has helped solidify a rotation with a second legitimate top of the rotation pitcher. He also acquired reliever Sean Marshall in a trade with the Cubs this winter to help fortify the bullpen. Jocketty also brought in former all-star outfielder Ryan Ludwick off of two very poor seasons in San Diego and Pittsburgh. Ludwick has rebounded nicely and has been one of the best bargaining signings in the sport.

Manager Dusty Baker never gets credit for his pitching management, but he has done a solid job configuring the bullpen. Ryan Madson was to be the closer at the start of the season after being signed to a value deal right before spring training. But, Madson didn�t make it out of spring training healthy. Initially, Baker used Marshall as his closer, preferring to leave his relief ace and elite weapon Aroldis Chapman for other situations, most likely more high leverage situations.

Then, however, Baker made the switch when it was apparent that Chapman was more suited for the job. With Chapman entrenched as the closer, Baker has managed the bullpen of Marshall, Jose Arredondo, Sam LeClure, Logan Ondresuk, and Alfredo Simon skillfully. The bullpen has been one of the most valuable weapons in the sport. Because the rotation has been stable and has given quality starts, the Reds� bullpen is one of the least used in the league. That makes them an even more effective weapon as they are rarely overworked.

The Reds relievers have averaged a league leading 10.06 K/9. While strikeouts aren�t the only important aspect to a pitcher, relievers who can come in and elicit swings and misses are incredibly valuable. With the exception of Ondresuk, all Reds� relievers average more than eight strikeouts per nine innings. The group is also second in runners left on base percentage with 79.1 percent rate. By WAR standards, the Reds� bullpen WAR of 5.4 is almost a full game better than the second most valuable bullpen.

But, that bullpen is elite because it isn�t overexposed. The rotation has been one of the most consistent in the league. Their top five starters have started 129 of the Reds� 130 games this season. Their 814.2 innings are the second most in the league behind the Phillies. While their 6.77 K/9 rate is one of the lowest amongst National League rotations, their 2.19 BB/9 rate is second best. The 3.78 rotation ERA is fifth best, but given that their starters give more innings than the top four teams, that ERA is a bit more valuable.

The rotation is backed by one of the better defenses in the league. A couple of years ago, the Reds were an elite defense. Now, most metrics put them in the first half of good defensive clubs. Their plus-13 defensive runs scored rating is third best in the National League. UZR doesn�t like them as much, but their 0.2 UZR is eighth best. But, their 74 errors are fourth least in the National League.

All of that pitching and defense is backed by a solid offense as their 11.3 WAR indicates (7th best in the NL). The group ranks sixth in runs scored, first in doubles, second in home runs, and fourth in slugging percentage. Their .319 OBP is sixth best in the league. Seven Reds have more than 10 home runs, but just two of them have more than 20. That gives an indication of how the lineup has battled injuries--Votto and Rolen for extended time--yet has still managed to be consistent.

While the Reds look great statistically and appear to be cruising to the playoffs, they have a quality that bodes well for October baseball. They not only have stars and good role players, but they have enough elite weapons that can dominate in a short series.

Joey Votto is one of the handful of players around the game who can be called the best hitter in the game at any given time. He is currently on a rehab assignment after dealing with a knee injury. Once he gets back, he returns to a .342/.465/.604 batting line with 36 doubles, 14 home runs, and 41 RBI in just 298 at bats. Votto�s presence not only gives Baker his complete lineup, but it allows the still young Jay Bruce (31 doubles, 27 home runs) and the resurgent Ryan Ludwick (.560 slugging) to move down in the lineup. Votto will also allow Baker to use his rookie of the year candidate in Todd Frazier (22 doubles, 5 triples, 18 HR, .902 OPS) at third base, the outfield, or in a key pinch hitting spot.

The Reds could also add a weapon in the next few days if they choose to call up shortstop prospect Billy Hamilton. Hamilton has gained fame as the fastest man in professional baseball. The 21 year old�s bat is likely not ready for the Major Leagues, but his legs certainly are. He has stolen a record 154 bases this season in just 126 games. In 374 career Minor League games, he has 319 stolen bases. If there is one weakness in the Reds� offensive game it is indeed with the baserunning. They rank 14th with 72 stolen bases (Drew Stubbs has 28 of them). Hamilton could be a nice playoff weapon in a big situation. With playoff games tending to be closer games, a late game, fast base runner is a tremendous weapon.

But, October baseball is all about pitching. The Reds have very good pitching, but they have one of the most underrated starters in the game in Johnny Cueto. The 26 year old right hander seems to have finally broken through his problem of putting together a complete season. This season, he is 17-6 with a 2.47 ERA in 27 starts. In his 181.2 innings, he is averaging 8.2 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 7.2 K/9. His 3.06 FIP is stellar as is 17.5 swing and miss rate with pitches thrown in the strike zone. The right hander has posted his best walk rate of his Major League career. While it is difficult to call him a quintessential ace, Cueto is an upper echelon pitcher capable of matching up with anyone in the game.

Mat Latos� overall numbers may not look special, but the 24 year old has been pitching well since a poor first month. In August, he has posted a 2.62 ERA in five starts along with 28 strikeouts in 34.1 innings. Like Cueto, Latos isn�t a legitimate ace yet, but he is capable of dominating a game. With two starters who have the potential to dominate, the Reds are a dangerous team.

Their biggest weapon is Chapman. The Cuban has made good on the advanced hype, hitting triple digits with regularity at the end of games. He has struck out an incredible 113 batters in just 64 innings of work. Even more incredibly, he�s walked just 16 batters and 4.3 hits per nine innings while compiling 33 saves along with a 1.27 ERA. He is, with apologies to the Braves� Craig Kimbrel, Major League Baseball�s most dominant relief pitcher. Capable of pitching more than one inning, Chapman will allow Dusty Baker to be aggressive with his bullpen and have his biggest advantage on the mound in those pressurized playoff situations.

The Cincinnati Reds have all of the qualities of a potential World Series team. They hit with power. They have a solid rotation backed by a stellar bullpen. They also field well. Most importantly, they have elite weapons who can make a difference in a short series.

They have to be considered the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series. Maybe then, they�ll receive some attention for having some of Baseball�s most elite weapons.

Comments

# 1 bigdoc85 @ Aug 29

I love this team!

# 2 ELDoro @ Aug 29

And This One Belongs to The Reds!

# 3 cincy14fan @ Aug 30

We do have the qualities to be a portential World Series team. Problem is we need a better coach. Our record should be a lot better but Baker's problems of managing the bullpen late (putting a pitcher in just for classic matchup cause of the batter, or cause trying to break a guy out of a slump, to just leaving a reliever in so long).